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Expropriation of AbitibiBowater in Newfoundland: a political response to the crisis in the forestry industry.

modified version of an article published in the journal
Relations, No.732, May 2009.

On 4 December, the AbitibiBowater was announcing the permanent closure of paper mill in Grand Falls-Windsor in Newfoundland, a closure that caused the layoff of 750 workers in a city largely dependent activities of the company. Become currency common in an industry whose development model has become unsustainable, that kind of bad news might not have attracted so much attention if a political reaction was followed two weeks later on December 16, in fact, the Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, Danny Williams, did pass legislation leading to the expropriation of all assets held by AbitibiBowater in the province, with the exception of the plant affected by the closure. In fact, they are cutting rights in public forests, but especially the hydro-electric power the plant that were the subject of a collective reappropriation through legislation.

Although this measure, which the years of economic and political liberalism have lost the habit, won the Premier of Newfoundland to see confirm his nickname "Danny Chavez", yet she had nothing really "revolutionary" . Indeed, under a contractual agreement in 1905 between the Government of Newfoundland and the Anglo-Newfoundland Development Company, the predecessor of AbitibiBowater, granting the Forest stumpage and damming of rivers was explicitly subject to a requirement for it to operate at least one production unit in the province. In Newfoundland As in Quebec, we know, the historical development of the manufacturing sector has mainly been based on a development strategy combining plant and dam, the internalization of costs of electricity for production companies to establish a comparative advantage across continentale.C east as well as announcing the closure of Grand Falls-Windsor, the last factory run by AbitibiBowater in Newfoundland, the forest had to legally end its economic commitments as well as the agreement, which of time, extinguished their rights to the exploitation of forest and water. " no paper, no power " has reaffirmed the Newfoundland government, determined to retain sovereignty over its natural resources.

However, this reaction was clearly not intended by AbitibiBowater, for whom the closure was part of a strategy to stabilize its financial situation. Hit hard by an industry downturn that its business model has helped to generate, AbitibiBowater has recently found major problems facing liquidity and solvency. With profits down sharply, and a debt of 6.2 $ billion - including $ 1 billion dollars must be repaid by the end of summer, the corporation decided to close plants to reduce its operating costs, and to divest most of its assets " appreciated "by the markets in order to generate new cash. For her, the closure of its plant in Grand Falls-Windsor corresponded well to do two things at once: make savings of fixed costs (salaries and equipment of the industrial complex) and, most importantly, maximize profits from the sale hydroelectric facilities adjacent to the plant. The value of assets circulating in the North American energy that literally exploded in recent years, AbitibiBowater has been in this industry a way out of financial crisis, even if it means breaking the tandem mill - dam that had once made his fortune, but today ' Today was a ball. It is precisely in the name of the opportunities presented by this formula for economic development of its territory as the Newfoundland legislature has cut short the proposed auction of expropriating the dams.

Faced with what appeared to him as a dangerous precedent, AbitibiBowater said that the expropriation violated his rights as an investor, and decided to use the provisions of Chapter 11 of NAFTA to extract financial compensation from the Canadian government. The procedure is now underway, and it is the Harper government will go plead the cause of Newfoundland before the NAFTA tribunal, which is responsible for determining the validity of complaints from AbitibiBowater and to determine the Where appropriate, the amount of the compensation to be paid.

Meanwhile, the forest has signaled its intention to sell several of its dams in Ontario and Quebec. Workers factories around these facilities obviously have reason for concern, insofar as the sale of these assets would mean the end of a supply of electricity at low cost, and therefore also the end of "comparative advantages" of productive units in Quebec. Especially AbitibiBowater will have to deal with financial powers that his problems have attracted like flies to manure in February, the U.S. investment fund Steelhead Partners became the majority shareholder of AbitibiBowater raising its position to 15% of shares held. Like all such funds, the purpose of this shareholder is to maximize the financial value of the company using all possible means short-term, including further lobbying for the company restructures, or liquid dismantle much of its assets. Other closures are expected. The crisis will be long and painful. What the example of Newfoundland has shown is that the dismantling of this model of development of the forestry industry can be an opportunity to "re-nationalization of assets, primarily for the benefit of rural communities. In this, it is a political way out of crisis that is, having the advantage of giving back to society a way reflected on his environment, a path that is yet to come bearing clashes with classes of North American business.

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The mysteries of life ...... market maker Tembec

The note below was posted on the blog progressive economic forum in response to about Henri Paul Rousseau before the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal. If he accepts the burden of historical losses of the Fund, the former leader is nonetheless permitted to rely on forces beyond his control to explain the extent of damage in 2008. Yet the question of the importance of investments of the Fund ABCP - to the point where it accounted for nearly half of these securities in circulation in Canada - remains for him a "mystery of life". I tried to explain to my fellow progressives here how the ROC can sometimes take us for fools and get away so that we can add insult to injury. The political crisis

Around the fund's dismal performance continued to haunt The Political scene in Quebec. Urged to explain how one billion dollars up to 40 Might Have Been Lost history Düring Management Fund ex-director Paul Henri Rousseau Largely blamed The Economic and Financial Crisis, Factors Beyond His Control. Asked Why and How the Fund ended up with so much ABCP in its books in the weeks leading up to the credit crunch (more than half of non bank ABCP) Rousseau replied that it remains “one of the mysteries of life”.

Some mysteries are more easily solved then others.

When Rousseau was called to the helm of the Caisse by PQ Prime minister Bernard Landry (and self-styled third way social democrat) he explicitly underscored his desire to change the Caisse’s dual mandate from the active pursuit of economic development and financial returns to a new mandate inspired by financial market efficiency theory: what’s good for financial markets must be good for economic development. Armed with this new mantra Rousseau asked that the Caisse’s operations and investment decisions be “neutralised” politically and that the mandate to develop Québec’s economy and protect “Québec INC’s interests” be scrapped. It took a provincial election and the rise to power of the (neo) liberal party of Jean Charest for the mandate to be changed. Progressives and left wing nationalists have argued since that the Caisse has not only deserted Québec’s economy as a major investor, but that it has tacitly supported neoliberal policies such as P3’s.

What does this have to do with ABCP ? I’ve argued in the francophone press (an op-ed piece in the Devoir) and media that in fact the Caisse did have a new mandate of economic “development”. Given it’s size in Québec’s economy and in Canada’s financial system, a decision to limit the Caisse’s investment strategy to the pursuit of highest possible financial returns condemned the Caisse to develop Canada’s …. financial markets. The Caisse owned at least a 10% stake in Coventry, a major provider of non bank ABCP, it also controlled the Montreal exchange, who’s derivative activity is intimately tied to the development of non bank ABCP, and it works closely with National Bank, a major reseller and broker in the non bank ABCP market in Canada back in the good old days when these constructs where assimilated to highly liquid, highly secure, highly profitable “money market” instruments. All the evidence I’ve stumbled on seems to point to the Caisse acting as “market maker” in this situation, why ? Because developing this new segment was highly profitable in a context of low returns on stock, because it supported the Montreal exchange’s bid to become an important player in the derivatives scene, because it dovetailed with the National bank’s strategy, and on the whole the Caisse seemed, back then, to help Montreal’s insignificant financial district become a significant player again.

Progressives in Québec are arguing that in times of economic crisis and crunched credit markets the Caisse should be available as policy tool to help our beleaguered manufacturing sector weather the storm and more importantly Lead With A Public Investment Strategy Towards a greener economy o and more socially sustainable growth. The Current Government Instead of thinking IS HAVING The Fund finances P3's that The Private Sector can not fund ... More of the Same to come?

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The new: the end of a "model"

modified version of an article published in the journal The Black Sheep
, Nov.-Dec. 2008.

There is now a year, the Forest Tembec announced the closure of a major recapitalization plan, a plan which involved a reorganization of the financial structure of the company to "ensure the continuation of its operations and improve its long-term value. " In the eyes of financial analysts, the large debt that Tembec had accumulated from the 1990s, combined with market outlook bleak, lead stock of the company and kept it "on the merits of the court": the title of company, having been traded at around $ 18 in 2000, now flirting with junk securities, and shrinking operating margins made daily more imminent crisis of solvency more difficult to refinance its borrowings. That's why this recapitalization plan was first referred this element of financial structure: in fact the conversion a slice of U.S. $ 1.2 billion of debt into shares of the company which was conducted in February 2008. After this transaction, 95% of the shares of the "new" company that would fall within the portfolio of its creditors, the remaining 5% being distributed proportionately among all shareholders earlier. Senior management of the company presented the transaction as a technical matter, primarily concerning the capital structure of the company.

Now, more than a mere accounting trick, the financial recovery plan sounded nothing less than the end of a business model and initiated major changes within Tembec changes we have witnessed in recent months. Indeed, this financial operation of converting debt into equity has meant that U.S. creditors from whom Tembec had contracted large loans in recent years have become, by the reversibility of financial engineering, the new majority shareholders company. This operation has been for at least two major reasons.

First, because Tembec has long been cited as a "model" Quebecois co-management business, a model that was based on the participation of employee ownership and administration of certain economic aspects of the firm. It will be recalled that after its closure in 1972 by the multinational CIP plant Témiscaming was bought by some of its executives and workers, which ensured a kind of anchor in the business community. This original, which was however mitigated over the years, was finally buried with the recapitalization, which shifts control of the capital of Quebec Tembec in the hands of American high finance. Even former pd-g. Frank Dottori and his friend Emanuele Saputo, the largest shareholder of the company before the commencement of the plan, have publicly opposed the transaction. In its edition of December 20, 2007, Le Devoir recounted indeed Dottori's reaction to the plan, which was still in draft: "I do not agree with giving the company to American investors and to pack, no matter how it is presented, shareholders, employees and people who have spent 20 or 30 years to build the company ... I have great difficulty accepting that ". Two weeks before Dottori not worry about these, Emanuele Saputo resigned from his post at AC Tembec and presented a refinancing plan "alternative" had advised that BMO Capital Markets team of James Lopez, the new pd -g. Tembec. This alternative was rejected, however, the top management of the company having clearly decided to seize the opportunity offered by this plan to rebuild a new Tembec, a break with the legacy of the years Dottori that sought to maintain the supply of Saputo.

Understand that this recapitalization plan is important for another reason, corollary to the first, or he has ushered in a new business model at Tembec, a model based on the ongoing restructuring of its productive activities. Indeed, the new shareholders of Tembec's new at the time of the closure of this plan, were no more than three U.S. hedge funds - Wayzata Investment Partners , Bear Stearns Asset Management and Trilogy Capital - who are known for their ability to drive major transformations within the management of controlled undertakings. Being in the hedge fund and private equity , two strategies of business management based on the substantial increase in financial returns of the company, these three new shareholders are part of the constellation of powerful financial organizations that show very pro-active "about the directions of the companies they hold. That means they have probably done everything to ensure that strategic decisions taken by the executive of Tembec comply with their best interests money managers , That is to say, the need to maximize the cash available (through increased cash flow and operating margins), and maintain a good credit rating of the forest with financial analysts. Tembec has become for these financial organizations an "asset" among others in their portfolio, an asset that must retain a significant document for possible liquidated in the market.

course, among all the means available to management to meet these expectations and sending positive signals to the community of financial observers, restructuring, plant closings and asset sales have been the easiest ways at the same time the most effective. In the current context of crisis in the majors forest industry, the arrival of these financial players at the head of Tembec has coincided with increasing rationalizations whose profits were, in essence, channeled to the company's financial interfaces. It is indeed the new Tembec, rather than trying to mitigate the effects of the crisis in the industry on the communities in which it operates, has resorted to these "traditional" means to improve the liquidity of the company: since the entry into force of the recapitalization plan a year ago, the closure announcements have shaken up, the brand new factory Amos closed last September, to the indefinite shutdown of operations of the pulp mill hardwood Matane, through the facilities ultimate Pine Falls, Manitoba, owned by its employees not so long ago.

Beyond the fact that the financial situation of Tembec will be (slightly) improved with the recapitalization, relieving the corporation of a debt financing costs had become prohibitive, it seems to blow ale bar also referred to habituate to practices now "standard" Tembec: applied at a decisive moment in the history of the company, medicine shock administered last few months is probably the clearest sign that the partnership model developed since the 1970s will now be up to management strategies "sticky" as close to the conventions produced by the market, a market now structured by new financial players.

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Quebec and Montreal Exchange Fund losses

Excerpt from the Globe site and Mail:

The leadership contest at the beleaguered Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec just got a whole mot more interesting, as the widely respected Luc Bertrand stepped down Thursday as head of the Montreal Exchange.

After nine years at the helm of the successful derivatives exchange, Mr. Bertrand will leave the deputy CEO job at TMX Group in June. He was a candidate for the top job whe the Montreal and Toronto exchanges merged last year, but the board brought in an outsider, Thomas Kloet.

“I now feel that it is a good time for me to move on to other challenges and opportunities,” said Mr. Bertrand in a press release. As a proven manager with international experience, Mr. Bertrand is often mentioned as a candidate for the top job at the Caisse, which is in disarray after losing $40-billion in 2008, and seeing it CEO Richard Guay retire. Mr. Bertrand has declined to comment on whether he would want the job - current Caisse CEO Fernand Perreault is not in the running - and he would certainly have his pick of positions at financial institutions.

But for an executive with an interest in public policy – Mr. Bertrand's undergraduate degree from the University of Ottawa is in political science – the challenge of turning around the Caisse would be enticing.

Other candidates for the top job at the Caisse include Jean-Guy Desjardins, CEO and co-founder of Fiera Capital and TAL Global Investment Management, and Christiane Bergevin, the head of SNC-Lavalin's finance division and a fund director. Mr. Desjardins is in. His mid-60s.

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at the checkout

In the aftermath of the analysis published in Le Devoir and here on the blog, it is noted that the losses by the Fund announced today strong probably underestimate the negative returns by overstating way too optimistic value ABCP that the fund still holds.
See this analysis in the Report on Business .

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Sale of timberlands by AbitibiBowater: between liquidity and financial appropriation of the forest rent.

The shortcomings of "classical" model of economic development of the forest in Quebec, a model-dependent structures and continentalisées massified of large transnational corporations, continue to deepen, to lie down and feed back them. Like other large timber companies operating in Quebec and Canada, AbitibiBowater is undergoing a crisis of liquidity and solvency crisis it has itself helped to produce a pushing growth pattern at the end of its practical consequences. The last period of consolidation, which began booming stock market from the late 1990s, gave birth in 2007 of a behemoth named AbitibiBowater, incorporated in the United States and flown from Montreal, who is struggling to justify its burdens with industrial stakeholders of a financial system combining dysfunction. AbitibiBowater operates in a market for forest products that collapsed, manages industrial facilities with minimum profitability thresholds are evaluated on a global scale, and now behind a debt of $ 6.2 billion, which does no-doubt, determines a large part of discussions at business meetings and did nothing to make sexy rating this elephant in the eyes of financial analysts. This discount becomes very real when a loan of $ 350 million to be refinanced next March, and about 1 billion $ Loan must be repaid or refinanced at the end of the coming summer.

This crisis of solvency, which is the "symptom" of a crisis model, senior management of the company is currently trying to manage it by disposing of assets that have a very good liquidity. This is the case of hydroelectric dams that the company counts among its assets in at least three Canadian provinces - Quebec, Ontario and Newfoundland (although in the latter province claims ownership), but also For forested areas. If assets such as dams are now selling for high prices the North American energy, it is the same for forest lands, which constitute a sort of safe haven in times of crisis, and on the basis of which some organizations - especially financial - are likely to develop a funding strategy.

After announcing plans for a first round of sales of dams in recent months, including facilities in Ontario who planned to be sold to the investment fund Brookfield Asset Management for $ 200 million, AbitibiBowater said Friday February 20, 2009, it had completed the sale of three large areas under forest management (lordships Perthuis Mauricie, Nicolas Riou and Lac Mitis in the Lower St. Lawrence), totaling nearly 76,000 acres. As a result, the company fetched $ 70 million in additional cash, allowing it to increase its funds available for loan refinancing maturing after tomorrow. A little oxygen, yet.

Before being sold to Solifor, a limited partnership of the Solidarity Fund QFL, these woodlots had been a proposal to purchase the part of elected representatives of the Lower St. Lawrence. Having mobilized the most leverage regional, these officials have requested that the Quebec government - by through the FMS - also involved in this significant transaction, which would have put under regional governance these "assets" are the extraordinary lordships Nicolas Riou and Lac Mitis. It turns out that for nearly 15 years, these territories were used as experimental basis for developing an alternative model of forestry, forest sharecropping model framed by the federal government has met or exceeded all expectations that industry, local governments and fed to him. However, this experience, perhaps too successful in the eyes of some, has been arrested. And proposed a re-collectivization of lordships, proposed by the MRC Rimouski-Mitis and La Neigette and backed by the past experience of sharecropping, was denied. Offer too little interest, beaten by another? Maybe. Not Enough réencastrés in the economic fabric of the region, however, these lots have been acquired by a fund in Quebec, perhaps more concerned about economic and ecological aspects of long-term forest development:

"The fear that people the region is that the territories were in the middle of our region fall under interests Ontario or the U.S.. So here they are Quebecers who have acquired these territories. I do not think the Solidarity Fund is used to let her sleep investments, "said Richard Savard, head of the forestry file at the Regional Conference of Elected Representatives of the Lower St. Lawrence.

But it will see and closely analyze the business plans developed by Solifor. In the case of the lordship Perthuis Mauricie Fund QFL embarked on a joint venture with Sawmill & son Dion, a local sawmill. Remains to be seen what will happen in the Lower St. Lawrence, which formula will be tested. Between mandate of economic development that respects life forms, and that of superior financial performance, the Investment Fund QFL is a financial organization may make contradictory choices.

In many see the economic history of Quebec and Canada, we can see easily that a model in crisis does not mean an outdated model or radically transformed. One can see the emergence of a refurbished model, as is the case in Quebec for a long time. But this crisis continental characteristics of the model offers new opportunities to bring about a new, more respectful of economic and ecological areas. The sale of these lots forest, rich qualitative and a special long-term value for the region and Quebec, would indeed have been an opportunity for local communities, regionally and nationally to establish their bases development, including developing formulas socioeconomic allowing forest communities to reclaim much of the forest rent. Or rather, to try to avert the return of the same, that this is a dress rehearsal, and everything remains open for a new political economy forest.

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must close the PPP program

Andre Christmas Press revealed yesterday that the magnitude of the crisis on PPP projects in the Charest government. The CHUM project is particularly affected, the firm responsible for financial ENGINEERED each consortium are experiencing extreme financial difficulties that could lead to bankruptcy. The policy of infrastructure development through the PPP manifesto here any limitations.
infrastructure projects are central stimulus policies, or here in Quebec, a significant portion of these projects have been locked in the PPP process. Clearly, there will not see the day as long as the crisis and tightening credit. Expenses that we must do today to boost our economy and in particular support the construction sector hard hit by the crisis can not wait for the recovery of the international financial system.
The Quebec government should be compelled to adopt the following measures:

1. Finance Minister should list all PPP projects for which funding or whose tender process is not finalized.

2. amounts associated with these projects must be subtracted from the total amount that the minister said in January spending to stimulate and revive the economy of Quebec.

3. a policy of conversion of major PPP projects to public projects should be established so that they can start as soon as possible. This policy must combine the following elements:

• integration in managing a conventional mode of certain mechanisms of risk sharing between manufacturers and public promoter;

• adoptotion mechanisms and practices to control costs and especially by management actual costs rather than according to figures underestimated;

• project financing through a program of government bonds sold primarily to institutional investors in Quebec.

4. revise the mandate of the Agency for PPP to exclude all large scale projects and any project in the field of essential public services (health, education, transportation), remove the mandate of the agency's objective promotion of PPPs and replace it with a mandate to evaluate and audit projects based on a financial and social audits.

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Wool socks, gratuity to speculate or leverage for development?

What to do with the Caisse de dépôt et placement in a time of crisis?

text submitted to the Duty
loss of 38 billion the sum is staggering. Rumor layoff of 7 out of 11 executives of the institution, the answer is equally important. What happened to the Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec? In 2004, the Charest government, reacting to what was perceived as political interference in the activity of the Fund and poor governance that resulted, has revised the mandate of the institution by asking something : yield, yield and performance. The syllogism of the efficiency of financial markets passed by Henri Paul Rousseau took up an idea conveyed in the U.S. on GM in the '50s: in these times then "what was good for GM was good for America." Here, what is good for financial returns is good for economic development of Quebec.

The Fund has therefore launched headlong into financial innovation. Brilliant and ambitious young minds were exceeded in financial engineering schemes. All imagination and creativity of the organization were mobilized by a culture of speculative activity. Results, in 2007, 40% yield of the Fund come from an arbitration in the foreign exchange market. The Fund and put big wins following his challenge on the volatility of the value Canadian dollar on the futures markets. Volatility contributes, it must be said, to provoke. So it's completely wrong to maintain that the Fund is an investor "patient." Nothing is more short term approach that speculation on the exchange but it is a new market segments where it operates. The Fund, like many other funds, participates actively in the movement of financialization of the economy that many believe has set the stage for the current economic crisis. We must remember that the Fund is by far one of the biggest financial players in the Canadian markets. It can, given its weight, difficult to prevent that its actions become structural.

Problem interventionist governance or new mandate?

losses of 38 billion is related to the participation of the Fund ABCP market, commercial paper backed by assets. This market was central to the mechanism of securitization of U.S. and Canadian consumers. Essential to maintain growth in a decade, he allowed the expansion of household debt to unprecedented levels employed in modern economic history and "intoxication" by the famous markets of subprime mortgages. Currently associated losses the Fund to a problem of governance. " It is once again haunted by the specter of mismanagement. Rather, we believe that the Fund operates under its new mandate, which ultimately is just as interventionist than its previous mandate. The Fund does not play a passive role in the development or secondary market for securitized assets in Canada. Market is growing dramatically since the mid 1990s and a second wind from 2004, when the Fund began seriously in this segment of money markets. (See on this chart above)

It is important recall that in 2007 in Canada, when the bursting of the credit crisis that led to the economic crisis that we know, the market commercial paper met in Montreal in the offices of the Fund to attempt, unsuccessfully to find a solution to the collapse of this sector financial and currency markets. The Fund was perceived by all actors as the "" Market Maker "of the ABCP, the market maker, the buyer of last resort. Why Is the Fund has become a central player to the point where almost 25% of ABCP belonged to him?

Since the Fund is searching for high yields its sole objective, it has established, as several other financial institutions, internal incentive schemes, mainly bonuses to short-term returns that reinforce a culture of speculation in the organization. The measure of returns in the financial community today is relatively simple. To be rewarded, we must "do better than the market" (beat the market), as measured by the standard positive (or negative) investment performance of a manager relative to average performance of similar investments. In the very short term and occasionally a good challenge, a good load and access to inside information can "beat the market, but generally the only way to deviate systematically in the average yield is to play on the level of portfolio risk. Make riskier investments relate more to short-term. But what about the long and medium term? "I'll have a job somewhere else," said the manager may be used to move from one organization to another. The Fund, under Henri-Paul Rousseau, has diversified its investment strategies and participated actively in financial innovation that has characterized the period preceding the current crisis. Year after year, she "beat the market "And the shame associated with failures of investment more or less profitable in Quebec Inc. and entrepreneurs close to the political class have been forgotten.

The economy is growing at an annual rate of 2 to 4%, however, the Fund reported almost year in, year out, a return higher than 10%. What genius! 2007, the stock market is stagnating, the performance of the portfolios of large investors wavers. Despite this, the Fund keeps track of positive returns. In 2008, she gets her own game and towels massive loss of market it helped to establish.

Bottom of wool or development tool?

It must be remembered, the assets of the Fund is (for the time and fewer new listings disastrous) 40% of gross domestic product of Quebec. He has the ability to deeply affect the structure and dynamics of our economic activity, as demonstrated elsewhere in support of the Fund for the development of the securitization market in Canada. This demonstrates also that the attempt in 2004 to "neutralize" the political impact of the Fund was a decoy. Confine the Fund in terms of financial returns meant to direct its activities towards the development of financial sector increasingly speculative short-term approach and voracious returns, without regard to its impact on the real economy. It should also be emphasized that relatively speaking, the losses are associated with this debacle seem like paltry losses associated with the support of dubious projects of Quebec Inc. Scraire for years.

The Fund from its inception was designed to be more than a "nest egg". It is a tool of intervention options across partisan, that is to say a tool of economic sovereignty. If we wanted a nest egg, he would have just put several competing fund managers Quebec and Bay Street by giving them a part of the money savings of Quebecers institutionalized. The risk would have been distributed. External auditors and government officials have overseen the management of our various savings and assets would have thought and melted after the vagaries of the market and our abhorrence or our risk appetite. The architects of the Quiet Revolution chose instead to centralize these savings and make a lever of development. At first the "province of Quebec could free itself from its dependence on private finance, yet very British of Bay Street. Thereafter Crown corporations, such as Hydro-Quebec could finance large development projects of public infrastructure productive.

We are again confronted with critical challenges to our economic future. On the one hand, all to preach a revival of an economic crisis that has shown its limits in the social: inequality, debt, consumerism, crumbling public infrastructure. On the other hand, we are facing an ecological crisis increasingly palpable that challenges the very idea of reviving the growth of consumption. Several analysts argue for a plan to end the crisis that would shift significantly the development of our economies towards a more ecological, less dependent on international markets and more united. The Fund, as the weight of his active imagination and creativity of its workers could be made to serve this project to end the crisis. And I'm sure to focus on the development of our economic sovereignty will bring long-term yields necessary to sustain the growth of responsible and realistic in our collective savings.

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PPPs: the end of recess Forget Me

It was learned yesterday that the PPP project for the CHUM was in jeopardy insofar the company in charge of the financial package for one of two consortia selected faces serious financial difficulties. One month is the PPP project instead of the hall of the MSO was jeopardized by the deterioration in financing conditions. We are open e financial crisis, it manifests itself in the form of a credit crunch unpublished, only the strongest claims will find takers in the current circumstances. For a few years time to private finance is over.

In this context it is quite angelic suggest that infrastructure projects in PPP mode will find solutions significant funding smoothly. If we must spend on infrastructure projects to buoy the economy, we can not allow ourselves to rely on private markets to finance these projects. We need all the PPP projects are immediately converted to conventional financing projects for at least two reasons.

1. to ensure that projects will proceed in a timely manner;

2. because the markets need now safe securities such as government bonds of the provinces, municipalities and parastatals.

Until then, it is necessary that the Minister of Finance has the honesty and transparency to eliminate the amount it announced infrastructure spending amounts that are related to PPP projects so that we have the real picture of the Liberal plan of economic stimulus.

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Infrastructure: Triple conditonnalité

As we know, all Federal, Provincial, and Municpal be constrained in the coming months to spend like never before to try to keep our economy afloat. The left and environmentalists have argued their priorities in terms of infrastructure projects, I think we should and can go much further. The amounts spent in the coming months represent a level of political intervention in the economy not seen since the 1940s. This is an opportunity missed to transform its structure. So here is a first draft proposal: triple-compliance.
Every infrastructure project must meet the following conditions:
1. an ecological criterion: the project must attend not only to reduce environmental impact but by its design and its implementation contribute positively to the environment of space where it will be implemented and should foster the development of technologies and green production processes
2. a condition for integration to the Quebec economy on a secured : The project should prioritize the development and use of products made in Quebec and we must think a funding mechanism which varies upward with the Degree of processing local / regional / national product in contexts of production and implemented socially acceptable
3. a criterion of social proximity : the project must by its implementation and operation to promote local ownership, not only the infrastructure for its nationalization or municipal ownership, but in the knowledge, techniques and materials necessary for its operation and maintenance .

to follow.

All that to say that we must do more than simply require a renovation of our "stock of social infrastructure" a Left that it adheres to renounce its power to transform society!

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tax credit for renovation: a missed opportunity

The only aspect of the economic statement that seems to receive positive is the program of renovation and home improvement. According to the government statement:
"A refundable tax credit for renovation and home improvement
rate of 20% and a maximum of $ 2 500, helping to keep jobs
of 25 000 workers in the construction industry and to create
2000 new jobs in this sector ".
But attention to detail, according to Radio-Canada must spend at least $ 7500, because only ith the 7501 dollar is eligible for a refund of 20 percent.

Obviously no conditionality in terms of ecological renovation or purchase of Quebec products.

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The continued tightening


Two investigations Bank of Canada confirms the extent of the credit crisis. Here in the Report on Business a summary of the facts.

I can update a text on the steps and mechanisms leading to the credit crisis to a depressive cycle.


From financial crisis to the structural crisis of financial capitalism

In Canada and Quebec, although our manufacturing sector is in pieces, we do not yet feel the full extent of the shock generated by the crisis, to hear our leaders and their advisers the worst of the economic crisis is behind us not too affected.

De fabula narratur you the process of financial deflation starts here just his work and his foundation are profound. Here are a few lines the steps and mechanisms put in motion and in this crisis1.

1.Il is important to remember that the origin of the crisis in August 2007, is a very special segment and key financial markets, the interbank lending market, the pipe through which all financial and monetary transactions are forced to spend! This sudden collapse of interbank lending continues to be the engine of the adversarial trial that is unfolding before our eyes. In late summer 2007 the interbank credit crisis broke out simultaneously in Europe (Paris and London), United States and Canada when large commercial banks and investment are presented with a fundamental doubt and uncertainty as to the radical value of an asset class in the heart of the recent financial practice, products of "securitization." Take a loan, debt, and make the goods, the movement launched in such a hot potato, this is the basic logic of securitization. Derive from this first metamorphosis of a debt as an asset a series of additional financial assets (the famous products) and finally repack everything into new complex, opaque securities and you have a market that has been known in Canada as the ABCP (asset-backed commercial paper assets).

This market was used by banks and other financial firms to securitize receivables (loans metamorphose into tradable securities) and as an investment vehicle in the short term relatively profitable. When the world loses confidence in the banking market two things happen simultaneously. Despite their strong balance sheets, banks lose their source of funding was the market for securities backed by assets that allowed them to maintain a high level of credit to businesses and individuals in the securitization, the more they do not trust the balance sheets of their counterparts they believe potentially infected with toxic debt, interbank lending dries up too.

2. The interbank credit crunch led banks to restrict credit to businesses and households, despite significant decreases and continuous rates of central banks. Firms respond by reducing or postponing their investments, they make layoffs to reduce their production levels. However, the reduction / deferral of some investment translates into lower production / employment of others.

4. Households lose confidence in the economy, lose income, lose jobs and see a reduction in nominal value of their financial assets and property while maintaining the costs of financing. This has several consequences. The most obvious is a likely drop in consumption caused by the loss of trust that will be added as additional pressure on corporate earnings already in decline. This classic loop we know it. By cons, we know little about the multiplier effect of what will have been the restriction on consumer credit growth. And finally, we have no precise idea of the effect on the banking system, rising bankruptcies and household enterprises and the growth of late payment of debts that will be generated by the weakening of household income. We know that this loop may amplify the credit crunch and banks' thirst for cash.

5. To this we must add the effects of the downturn in the housing market. Inflation in the value of real estate was used as a lever for credit by households, along with the ease with which banks could securitize their portfolios of mortgages - and thus open new loans - fed the expansion of value of these assets. This positive loop, but actually vicious between securitization, expansion of the value of real estate and household use of them as leverage for consumption, turns negative loop in which the weight of household debt combined with stagnant or declining the value of their homes, has a depressive effect on consumption and weakens the banks holding, beyond the risk securitization ultimate default.

6.For conclusion must be added to the analysis of these mechanisms the effect of market dynamics. Unlike the crisis of 1929 or the 1987, stock exchanges, the TSX, the New York Stock Exchange, are not at the forefront of this crisis which originated in the interbank market. Instead, these grants recorded after the fact and amplify these developments. They were strongly shaken by the disappearance of a class of actors structuring: the big investment banks. The slow implosion of values creates a phenomenon that multiplies the effect of the crisis of three interrelated ways. First, households that have significant direct or indirect investments (funds) in stock will see their assets decline in value. The impact of the reverse wealth effect is largely unknown but will be negative. To this we must add the effect more indicative of a possible erosion of the basis of capitalization of listed companies, that can not recapitalize if share prices fall too steeply, especially as these movements can get excited without basic reasons. This can be disastrous for some of them, especially banks, are currently seeking capital and plans to issue new shares. Finally, the commitments of the major companies to the pension benefit plans are likely to act as an additional burden limiting the expansion of their activities.

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The TED spread

Having
1929 in mind, we are accustomed to consider the evolution of market indices as a sign of development of the financial crisis. It is a mistake, the scholarships are currently trailer (see this previous analysis ) developments rather than before, though in the Jeff Rubin says of this world.
The most reliable indicator is to observe, according to several observers , the "TED spread". It measures, in its way, the tightening of bank credit that triggered the current crisis and who always acts as an engine of development.

This indicator represents the difference interest rates between short-term securities issued by the U.S. Treasury (3 months) and 90-day interbank loans in U.S. dollars. That is to say, he expresses the Degree of confidence that banks make to each other.

Here is a link where you can watch it by yourself .

Over a period of five years here, above, the evolution of this indicator, the points represent times when the credit has literally evaporated. It noted that it remains at a level twice as high in early 2009 that during the period preceding the crisis.

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predictions of Dr. Pangloss

“The bad news is that we are in a recession, and a fairly deep one at that. The good news is that the stock market has already discounted a depression,” said Jeff Rubin, CIBC World Markets chief economist and chief strategist. “That's why no matter how severe the recent non-farm payroll losses are, the stock market soon shrugs it off.”
(...)

“Stocks can only cheer as businesses and households will be force-fed stimulus money from governments that will no longer care about deficits,” he said. “With the market having set the bar so low insofar as the economy is concerned, the slightest pulse in second-half growth The TSX should "send climbing to 11.000 by year-end."

(...)

aussi He Predicted That Oil Prices Should Rebound, Along With The Markets.

"If $ 40-50 per barrel of oil Is the price in a deep global recession, it Should not Be Too Hard to Figure Out Why Our Portfolio IS overweight energy stocks oven points," Mr. Rubin said.

From the Globe , who has just ' announce the layoff of 10% of its employees!

The power of the rationality of the stock ceases to amaze me.

Incidentally, oil prices fell below the bar of $ 40 this afternoon ... sorry Jeff.

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crisis and the political economy of 'overclass: a case of shock therapy?

"The upcoming Federal Budget Needs immediate, permanent tax cuts to Stimulate The Canadian economy, to Be Offset by Tightening The kidneys were pro Spending in Future Years, SEVERAL of Canada's top private-sector economists recommended Wednesday." Report on Business


Still without gene economists argue the major Canadian banks in economic crisis for a combination of tax cuts and reduced government spending as a centerpiece of any stimulus package. Echoing Flaherty, they recognize the need to invest in infrastructure projects, the emphasis they believe should be on tax cuts permanent .

Obviously, they note, such a measure would create a structural shortfall in the state coffers and therefore the right solution? Cut in program spending, which according to our bankers rise, for 10 years, because excessive speed slightly higher than the growth rate of GDP.

No mention of the fact that spending growth for ten years (1998 - 2008) is really just catching up and beyond the minimum state intervention after disastrous cuts of the 90s as part of the deficit. Our public expenditure / GDP is still well below the average level of OECD and well below the basic needs of a decent society. Why should we invest massively in infrastructure now? Because we did not have the budgets to maintain them during the neoliberal growth.

And tax cuts staff want? I have no details, but there are not many options. Either we lower taxes on consumption is significant to say the GST, the reduction must be significant impact economic, that is to say, make a psychological impression on households to engage in another round of overconsumption. I doubt that Flaherty is considering lowering the GST to the symbolic figure of 3, 2 or even 1%. And, as many have pointed out, lower sales taxes as much if not more stimulates the purchase of imported goods that North American products. So the effect of recovery is mixed.
Decline in tax revenues, certainly, but which ones?
We will certainly take the opportunity to broaden the tax shelters related to capital gains and other financial gain, claiming to lighten the burden of households on the cusp of retirement or retired. We will certainly take the opportunity to lighten the tax burden on the richest 10% contribute nearly 50% of the income tax, separate the rich from this category a little more about the fate of the rest of society .. .
For the lucky who is among the richest 1% (in terms of revenue) will come out the winners of such a "recovery", it is they who hold the largest share of financial assets and they are the ones who benefits most from a general decline in tax rates.

short, the political economy of overclass this crisis seems increasingly clear, on the one hand ordinary households must clean up their balance sheets and restore their savings rate, dixit Jacques Ménard Group BMO In The News, 28 November, and significant tax cuts permanent for the wealthiest to consolidate the neoliberal agenda of tax cuts paid by the year overclass North America began 20 years ago and finally reduced government spending on programs to further limit the influence of the public on the economy and further limit services for ordinary working families .

Sum we have a case of "Shock Therapy"?

A return to the prohibition of usury ?

In response to our bankers, I propose the following measure: recovery of Canada's law on "usury". The maximum rate that a financial institution can charge a borrower should be set as a deviation from the rate of the central bank, and this gap should be, given the crisis set for physical persons 10%. A higher rate would be set for legal persons, that is to say the companies. And why not, a range of rates may be set according to different types of loans, still based on a political objective. Such a "law wear "could actually become a policy of" directed credit "(popular measures in the years 60 to 70 in developing countries and reviled by the IMF) and an important lever of political economy.

Why that?

1. because I forgot to say earlier, banks also require that the Bank of Canada lowers its key rate more drastically, as you know gold declines this fall does are not translated into better credit conditions for consumers and businesses, and cuts will not want either. So the state to link its policy rate on the credit conditions through a ceiling imposed on banks.

2. because if the problem is the excessive level of debt in ordinary households the only way to reduce this rate without causing a depressive effect on demand is to reduce the burden of financing. Besides salary increases, it can be done through good old inflationary surge, two scenarios unlikely now, or through lower interest rates, allowing more rapid repayment of principal and So a rising savings rate.

3. economists overclass replied that this will encourage ordinary households to engage again in a race unsustainable debt burdens. Obviously when wages stagnated and it has promised some new objects of consumption in order to ensure a profit rate the temptation is there. One day we will have to decide! But by then I think we can count on the banks to continue, as the crisis continues to ration credit and thus limit the supply of credit.

4. They add that such a policy of directed credit would flee to banks and financial institutions étrangèrent and extend credit rationing as well as having a disastrous impact on their profits.
To that one little answer quickly, because a true response would require further elaboration:
a) the flight of Citigroup, HSBC and other MBNA credit market and mortgage consumer credit is well entammée, also will allow domestic banks can increase their share lost market;
b) the standard rate of credit secured by a usury law would seek to minimize the possibility of worsening credit rationing;
c) less than 50% of bank revenues come from interest on loans, the usury law may simply turn their "excess profits" into profits.

By cons, a Such action may significantly affect the market for the securitization of these loans by lowering the rate of return on these assets and especially lucrative activities related to securitization, but given the role of the market crisis, is so much trouble to see it disappear and banks forced to play their full role as creditor?