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PPPs: the end of recess Forget Me

It was learned yesterday that the PPP project for the CHUM was in jeopardy insofar the company in charge of the financial package for one of two consortia selected faces serious financial difficulties. One month is the PPP project instead of the hall of the MSO was jeopardized by the deterioration in financing conditions. We are open e financial crisis, it manifests itself in the form of a credit crunch unpublished, only the strongest claims will find takers in the current circumstances. For a few years time to private finance is over.

In this context it is quite angelic suggest that infrastructure projects in PPP mode will find solutions significant funding smoothly. If we must spend on infrastructure projects to buoy the economy, we can not allow ourselves to rely on private markets to finance these projects. We need all the PPP projects are immediately converted to conventional financing projects for at least two reasons.

1. to ensure that projects will proceed in a timely manner;

2. because the markets need now safe securities such as government bonds of the provinces, municipalities and parastatals.

Until then, it is necessary that the Minister of Finance has the honesty and transparency to eliminate the amount it announced infrastructure spending amounts that are related to PPP projects so that we have the real picture of the Liberal plan of economic stimulus.

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Infrastructure: Triple conditonnalité

As we know, all Federal, Provincial, and Municpal be constrained in the coming months to spend like never before to try to keep our economy afloat. The left and environmentalists have argued their priorities in terms of infrastructure projects, I think we should and can go much further. The amounts spent in the coming months represent a level of political intervention in the economy not seen since the 1940s. This is an opportunity missed to transform its structure. So here is a first draft proposal: triple-compliance.
Every infrastructure project must meet the following conditions:
1. an ecological criterion: the project must attend not only to reduce environmental impact but by its design and its implementation contribute positively to the environment of space where it will be implemented and should foster the development of technologies and green production processes
2. a condition for integration to the Quebec economy on a secured : The project should prioritize the development and use of products made in Quebec and we must think a funding mechanism which varies upward with the Degree of processing local / regional / national product in contexts of production and implemented socially acceptable
3. a criterion of social proximity : the project must by its implementation and operation to promote local ownership, not only the infrastructure for its nationalization or municipal ownership, but in the knowledge, techniques and materials necessary for its operation and maintenance .

to follow.

All that to say that we must do more than simply require a renovation of our "stock of social infrastructure" a Left that it adheres to renounce its power to transform society!

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tax credit for renovation: a missed opportunity

The only aspect of the economic statement that seems to receive positive is the program of renovation and home improvement. According to the government statement:
"A refundable tax credit for renovation and home improvement
rate of 20% and a maximum of $ 2 500, helping to keep jobs
of 25 000 workers in the construction industry and to create
2000 new jobs in this sector ".
But attention to detail, according to Radio-Canada must spend at least $ 7500, because only ith the 7501 dollar is eligible for a refund of 20 percent.

Obviously no conditionality in terms of ecological renovation or purchase of Quebec products.

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The continued tightening


Two investigations Bank of Canada confirms the extent of the credit crisis. Here in the Report on Business a summary of the facts.

I can update a text on the steps and mechanisms leading to the credit crisis to a depressive cycle.


From financial crisis to the structural crisis of financial capitalism

In Canada and Quebec, although our manufacturing sector is in pieces, we do not yet feel the full extent of the shock generated by the crisis, to hear our leaders and their advisers the worst of the economic crisis is behind us not too affected.

De fabula narratur you the process of financial deflation starts here just his work and his foundation are profound. Here are a few lines the steps and mechanisms put in motion and in this crisis1.

1.Il is important to remember that the origin of the crisis in August 2007, is a very special segment and key financial markets, the interbank lending market, the pipe through which all financial and monetary transactions are forced to spend! This sudden collapse of interbank lending continues to be the engine of the adversarial trial that is unfolding before our eyes. In late summer 2007 the interbank credit crisis broke out simultaneously in Europe (Paris and London), United States and Canada when large commercial banks and investment are presented with a fundamental doubt and uncertainty as to the radical value of an asset class in the heart of the recent financial practice, products of "securitization." Take a loan, debt, and make the goods, the movement launched in such a hot potato, this is the basic logic of securitization. Derive from this first metamorphosis of a debt as an asset a series of additional financial assets (the famous products) and finally repack everything into new complex, opaque securities and you have a market that has been known in Canada as the ABCP (asset-backed commercial paper assets).

This market was used by banks and other financial firms to securitize receivables (loans metamorphose into tradable securities) and as an investment vehicle in the short term relatively profitable. When the world loses confidence in the banking market two things happen simultaneously. Despite their strong balance sheets, banks lose their source of funding was the market for securities backed by assets that allowed them to maintain a high level of credit to businesses and individuals in the securitization, the more they do not trust the balance sheets of their counterparts they believe potentially infected with toxic debt, interbank lending dries up too.

2. The interbank credit crunch led banks to restrict credit to businesses and households, despite significant decreases and continuous rates of central banks. Firms respond by reducing or postponing their investments, they make layoffs to reduce their production levels. However, the reduction / deferral of some investment translates into lower production / employment of others.

4. Households lose confidence in the economy, lose income, lose jobs and see a reduction in nominal value of their financial assets and property while maintaining the costs of financing. This has several consequences. The most obvious is a likely drop in consumption caused by the loss of trust that will be added as additional pressure on corporate earnings already in decline. This classic loop we know it. By cons, we know little about the multiplier effect of what will have been the restriction on consumer credit growth. And finally, we have no precise idea of the effect on the banking system, rising bankruptcies and household enterprises and the growth of late payment of debts that will be generated by the weakening of household income. We know that this loop may amplify the credit crunch and banks' thirst for cash.

5. To this we must add the effects of the downturn in the housing market. Inflation in the value of real estate was used as a lever for credit by households, along with the ease with which banks could securitize their portfolios of mortgages - and thus open new loans - fed the expansion of value of these assets. This positive loop, but actually vicious between securitization, expansion of the value of real estate and household use of them as leverage for consumption, turns negative loop in which the weight of household debt combined with stagnant or declining the value of their homes, has a depressive effect on consumption and weakens the banks holding, beyond the risk securitization ultimate default.

6.For conclusion must be added to the analysis of these mechanisms the effect of market dynamics. Unlike the crisis of 1929 or the 1987, stock exchanges, the TSX, the New York Stock Exchange, are not at the forefront of this crisis which originated in the interbank market. Instead, these grants recorded after the fact and amplify these developments. They were strongly shaken by the disappearance of a class of actors structuring: the big investment banks. The slow implosion of values creates a phenomenon that multiplies the effect of the crisis of three interrelated ways. First, households that have significant direct or indirect investments (funds) in stock will see their assets decline in value. The impact of the reverse wealth effect is largely unknown but will be negative. To this we must add the effect more indicative of a possible erosion of the basis of capitalization of listed companies, that can not recapitalize if share prices fall too steeply, especially as these movements can get excited without basic reasons. This can be disastrous for some of them, especially banks, are currently seeking capital and plans to issue new shares. Finally, the commitments of the major companies to the pension benefit plans are likely to act as an additional burden limiting the expansion of their activities.

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The TED spread

Having
1929 in mind, we are accustomed to consider the evolution of market indices as a sign of development of the financial crisis. It is a mistake, the scholarships are currently trailer (see this previous analysis ) developments rather than before, though in the Jeff Rubin says of this world.
The most reliable indicator is to observe, according to several observers , the "TED spread". It measures, in its way, the tightening of bank credit that triggered the current crisis and who always acts as an engine of development.

This indicator represents the difference interest rates between short-term securities issued by the U.S. Treasury (3 months) and 90-day interbank loans in U.S. dollars. That is to say, he expresses the Degree of confidence that banks make to each other.

Here is a link where you can watch it by yourself .

Over a period of five years here, above, the evolution of this indicator, the points represent times when the credit has literally evaporated. It noted that it remains at a level twice as high in early 2009 that during the period preceding the crisis.

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predictions of Dr. Pangloss

“The bad news is that we are in a recession, and a fairly deep one at that. The good news is that the stock market has already discounted a depression,” said Jeff Rubin, CIBC World Markets chief economist and chief strategist. “That's why no matter how severe the recent non-farm payroll losses are, the stock market soon shrugs it off.”
(...)

“Stocks can only cheer as businesses and households will be force-fed stimulus money from governments that will no longer care about deficits,” he said. “With the market having set the bar so low insofar as the economy is concerned, the slightest pulse in second-half growth The TSX should "send climbing to 11.000 by year-end."

(...)

aussi He Predicted That Oil Prices Should Rebound, Along With The Markets.

"If $ 40-50 per barrel of oil Is the price in a deep global recession, it Should not Be Too Hard to Figure Out Why Our Portfolio IS overweight energy stocks oven points," Mr. Rubin said.

From the Globe , who has just ' announce the layoff of 10% of its employees!

The power of the rationality of the stock ceases to amaze me.

Incidentally, oil prices fell below the bar of $ 40 this afternoon ... sorry Jeff.

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crisis and the political economy of 'overclass: a case of shock therapy?

"The upcoming Federal Budget Needs immediate, permanent tax cuts to Stimulate The Canadian economy, to Be Offset by Tightening The kidneys were pro Spending in Future Years, SEVERAL of Canada's top private-sector economists recommended Wednesday." Report on Business


Still without gene economists argue the major Canadian banks in economic crisis for a combination of tax cuts and reduced government spending as a centerpiece of any stimulus package. Echoing Flaherty, they recognize the need to invest in infrastructure projects, the emphasis they believe should be on tax cuts permanent .

Obviously, they note, such a measure would create a structural shortfall in the state coffers and therefore the right solution? Cut in program spending, which according to our bankers rise, for 10 years, because excessive speed slightly higher than the growth rate of GDP.

No mention of the fact that spending growth for ten years (1998 - 2008) is really just catching up and beyond the minimum state intervention after disastrous cuts of the 90s as part of the deficit. Our public expenditure / GDP is still well below the average level of OECD and well below the basic needs of a decent society. Why should we invest massively in infrastructure now? Because we did not have the budgets to maintain them during the neoliberal growth.

And tax cuts staff want? I have no details, but there are not many options. Either we lower taxes on consumption is significant to say the GST, the reduction must be significant impact economic, that is to say, make a psychological impression on households to engage in another round of overconsumption. I doubt that Flaherty is considering lowering the GST to the symbolic figure of 3, 2 or even 1%. And, as many have pointed out, lower sales taxes as much if not more stimulates the purchase of imported goods that North American products. So the effect of recovery is mixed.
Decline in tax revenues, certainly, but which ones?
We will certainly take the opportunity to broaden the tax shelters related to capital gains and other financial gain, claiming to lighten the burden of households on the cusp of retirement or retired. We will certainly take the opportunity to lighten the tax burden on the richest 10% contribute nearly 50% of the income tax, separate the rich from this category a little more about the fate of the rest of society .. .
For the lucky who is among the richest 1% (in terms of revenue) will come out the winners of such a "recovery", it is they who hold the largest share of financial assets and they are the ones who benefits most from a general decline in tax rates.

short, the political economy of overclass this crisis seems increasingly clear, on the one hand ordinary households must clean up their balance sheets and restore their savings rate, dixit Jacques Ménard Group BMO In The News, 28 November, and significant tax cuts permanent for the wealthiest to consolidate the neoliberal agenda of tax cuts paid by the year overclass North America began 20 years ago and finally reduced government spending on programs to further limit the influence of the public on the economy and further limit services for ordinary working families .

Sum we have a case of "Shock Therapy"?

A return to the prohibition of usury ?

In response to our bankers, I propose the following measure: recovery of Canada's law on "usury". The maximum rate that a financial institution can charge a borrower should be set as a deviation from the rate of the central bank, and this gap should be, given the crisis set for physical persons 10%. A higher rate would be set for legal persons, that is to say the companies. And why not, a range of rates may be set according to different types of loans, still based on a political objective. Such a "law wear "could actually become a policy of" directed credit "(popular measures in the years 60 to 70 in developing countries and reviled by the IMF) and an important lever of political economy.

Why that?

1. because I forgot to say earlier, banks also require that the Bank of Canada lowers its key rate more drastically, as you know gold declines this fall does are not translated into better credit conditions for consumers and businesses, and cuts will not want either. So the state to link its policy rate on the credit conditions through a ceiling imposed on banks.

2. because if the problem is the excessive level of debt in ordinary households the only way to reduce this rate without causing a depressive effect on demand is to reduce the burden of financing. Besides salary increases, it can be done through good old inflationary surge, two scenarios unlikely now, or through lower interest rates, allowing more rapid repayment of principal and So a rising savings rate.

3. economists overclass replied that this will encourage ordinary households to engage again in a race unsustainable debt burdens. Obviously when wages stagnated and it has promised some new objects of consumption in order to ensure a profit rate the temptation is there. One day we will have to decide! But by then I think we can count on the banks to continue, as the crisis continues to ration credit and thus limit the supply of credit.

4. They add that such a policy of directed credit would flee to banks and financial institutions étrangèrent and extend credit rationing as well as having a disastrous impact on their profits.
To that one little answer quickly, because a true response would require further elaboration:
a) the flight of Citigroup, HSBC and other MBNA credit market and mortgage consumer credit is well entammée, also will allow domestic banks can increase their share lost market;
b) the standard rate of credit secured by a usury law would seek to minimize the possibility of worsening credit rationing;
c) less than 50% of bank revenues come from interest on loans, the usury law may simply turn their "excess profits" into profits.

By cons, a Such action may significantly affect the market for the securitization of these loans by lowering the rate of return on these assets and especially lucrative activities related to securitization, but given the role of the market crisis, is so much trouble to see it disappear and banks forced to play their full role as creditor?