Having 1929 in mind, we are accustomed to consider the evolution of market indices as a sign of development of the financial crisis. It is a mistake, the scholarships are currently trailer (see this previous analysis ) developments rather than before, though in the Jeff Rubin says of this world.
The most reliable indicator is to observe, according to several observers , the "TED spread". It measures, in its way, the tightening of bank credit that triggered the current crisis and who always acts as an engine of development.
This indicator represents the difference interest rates between short-term securities issued by the U.S. Treasury (3 months) and 90-day interbank loans in U.S. dollars. That is to say, he expresses the Degree of confidence that banks make to each other.
Here is a link where you can watch it by yourself .
Over a period of five years here, above, the evolution of this indicator, the points represent times when the credit has literally evaporated. It noted that it remains at a level twice as high in early 2009 that during the period preceding the crisis.
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